Wednesday, February 18, 2015

Depopulation: An Investor's Guide to Value in the Twenty-First Century

That's the title of a new short Kindle e-book by Philip Auerswald (@auerswald) and Joon Yun (@DrJunYoon). The book is, in part, a longer-form treatment of several of the main ideas from Auerswald's The Coming Prosperity, particularly Chapter 2: Demographic Dividends.

The book grapples seriously with Walt W. Rostow's observation that: "Up to this point, the conventional concern has been the adequacy of resources and the deterioration of the environment as new industrial countries move forward to technical maturity and beyond. These legitimate concerns give way in the next century to the quite different agenda of societies with declining or stagnant populations."

Naturally the book is strongly recommended, even if, like me, you have no intention to stop burying gold bullion in your backyard (the authors recommend real estate and health care investments as more appropriate alternatives.) You can find the book through Amazon--you do not need a kindle to read it.

Table of Contents


Chapter 1: Why depopulation is all but inevitable
The population explosion: A dramatic exception in human history.
A unique characteristic of our historical moment: Depopulation coinciding with aging.

Chapter 2: Demographics and investment from pre-history to the present
The Agrarian Era (40,000 BCE-1800 CE): Riches through conquest
The Mercantile Era (~1200-2000): Fortunes through arbitrage
     The Industrial Era (~1800-present): Wealth through economies of scale

Chapter 3: The return of yield
Four core trends
    Depopulation and aging
    Depopulation and urbanization
    Depopulation and international migration
    Depopulation and price volatility
The return of yield

Chapter 4: How and where to invest in a depopulating world
Impact on Investment by Asset Class
        Human Resource Management
    Real Estate
        Residential real estate
        Commercial real estate
    Fixed income
    Alternative investments
    Model risk
    Policy risk
    Threshold risk
    Asset-liability mismatch
    Expectational risk

Chapter 5: "The future ain't what it used to be"
Public Policy